Irish referendum thread

[RAENORTH]

I am keeping this thread as the single repository for all Irish Referendum posts. The latest is here - "Spelling it out".

[mikgen]

Your guess is as good as mine.

I saw one indication of a good result for the NO side on Swedish TV News today. Obviously, the first voter they interviewed had cast her vote for a YES, but unlike most other times they decided to be "neutral" and interview another lady who had voted NO. She was certain there would a No win. However, while she was being interviewed several people passed by in the background and made signs that only can be interpreted that they were not too fond of the EU. Obviously a very very small sample at best, but the fact that our TV News could not find any better pictures to relay gave me a slight hope.

[John Archer]

That's interesting, Mikgen, especially your point about no better pictures for them to find ('better' from their point of view, that is).

There is, apparently, to be no exit poll...

That sounds unusual. Do any of you know if it is unusual and could you tell us please? Did they have exit polls on Nice (x2) and Maastricht?

If I wanted to rig a vote then I might find an exit poll inconvenient.

...and the result is not expected until mid-afternoon tomorrow.

No rush then? Plenty of time for local colleagues of the colleagues to come up with the 'right' result.


By the way if, going by Nice, 34% is low and 50% is high then a 45% turnout is about two-thirds on the way to high. Again, going by the Nice results and interpolating, that would give the YES side 58% versus the NO side 42%.

Do any of you have an opinion on how plausible such a result would be?

[RAENORTH]

Mikgen: The impression could be right - we are getting all sorts of similar signs.

JA - with the strength of the Libertas campaign, the "no" core is expected to be larger than it was at Nice. Pundits are suggesting that the government needs 50 percent to win.

[John Archer]

with the strength of the Libertas campaign, the "no" core is expected to be larger than it was at Nice.

Jolly good. Thanks.

Some rough figures just in case:

~ Total ROI population: 4.4M
~ Eligible to vote: 3.5M (guessed at 80% of population)
~ Turnout (45%): 1.6M
~ 0.5% of the turnout: 8,000

So, to arrange a 1% 'boost' means changing about 8,000 votes. A boost of 10% means fiddling with 80,000 votes.

"Here you go, here's 80,000 I made earlier on the euCONatron."

[AnIrishMan]

There is an exit poll – it’s been confirmed but there is no leak as yet. Judging from past experience, we will have to wait to the morning for that. If it makes any of you feel better, I think there is a very very high chance of the No winning. Fianna Fáil members are already reputedly throwing blame at the opposition!

[John Archer]

If it makes any of you feel better, I think there is a very very high chance of the No winning. Fianna Fáil members are already reputedly throwing blame at the opposition!

Yes, it does me. Thank you.

[Helen S]

Fianna Fáil members are already reputedly throwing blame at the opposition!

If true, that proves it. Nothing like politicians to start throwing blame around.

[Tap]

Lack of exit poll is suspicious.

[AnIrishMan]

We have a “possible leak” on the exit poll. Its not looking good - 54%-46% in favour of the Yes with a margin of +/-3. I can’t say how reliable it is though!

[Julian Williams]

Ouch!

[AnIrishMan]

Don’t worry too much – the wrong story could be spread to keep rival media off the scent.

[Tap]

Paddy Power have behaved suspiciously all through, with odds not moving a lot throughout despite polling shifts. Maybe they know the whole thing's going to be rigged anyway, with no exit polls, and ballot boxes 'stored' overnight.

[latipa]

Do they have electronic voting in Ireland?

[Bagua]

Go Irish!