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 Post subject: Irish referendum thread
PostPosted: Thu Jun 12, 2008 10:05 pm 
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I am keeping this thread as the single repository for all Irish Referendum posts. The latest is here - "Spelling it out".

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 Post subject: Re: Low turnout in Ireland
PostPosted: Thu Jun 12, 2008 10:50 pm 

Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2005 10:21 pm
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Your guess is as good as mine.

I saw one indication of a good result for the NO side on Swedish TV News today. Obviously, the first voter they interviewed had cast her vote for a YES, but unlike most other times they decided to be "neutral" and interview another lady who had voted NO. She was certain there would a No win. However, while she was being interviewed several people passed by in the background and made signs that only can be interpreted that they were not too fond of the EU. Obviously a very very small sample at best, but the fact that our TV News could not find any better pictures to relay gave me a slight hope.


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 Post subject: Re: Low turnout in Ireland
PostPosted: Thu Jun 12, 2008 11:28 pm 
That's interesting, Mikgen, especially your point about no better pictures for them to find ('better' from their point of view, that is).


RAENORTH wrote:
There is, apparently, to be no exit poll...
That sounds unusual. Do any of you know if it is unusual and could you tell us please? Did they have exit polls on Nice (x2) and Maastricht?

If I wanted to rig a vote then I might find an exit poll inconvenient.


RAENORTH wrote:
...and the result is not expected until mid-afternoon tomorrow.
No rush then? Plenty of time for local colleagues of the colleagues to come up with the 'right' result.


By the way if, going by Nice, 34% is low and 50% is high then a 45% turnout is about two-thirds on the way to high. Again, going by the Nice results and interpolating, that would give the YES side 58% versus the NO side 42%.

Do any of you have an opinion on how plausible such a result would be?


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 Post subject: Re: Low turnout in Ireland
PostPosted: Thu Jun 12, 2008 11:28 pm 
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Mikgen: The impression could be right - we are getting all sorts of similar signs.

JA - with the strength of the Libertas campaign, the "no" core is expected to be larger than it was at Nice. Pundits are suggesting that the government needs 50 percent to win.

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 Post subject: Re: Low turnout in Ireland
PostPosted: Thu Jun 12, 2008 11:55 pm 
RAENORTH wrote:
with the strength of the Libertas campaign, the "no" core is expected to be larger than it was at Nice.
Jolly good. Thanks.

Some rough figures just in case:

~ Total ROI population: 4.4M
~ Eligible to vote: 3.5M (guessed at 80% of population)
~ Turnout (45%): 1.6M
~ 0.5% of the turnout: 8,000

So, to arrange a 1% 'boost' means changing about 8,000 votes. A boost of 10% means fiddling with 80,000 votes.

"Here you go, here's 80,000 I made earlier on the euCONatron."


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 Post subject: Re: Low turnout in Ireland
PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 12:29 am 
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There is an exit poll – it’s been confirmed but there is no leak as yet. Judging from past experience, we will have to wait to the morning for that. If it makes any of you feel better, I think there is a very very high chance of the No winning. Fianna Fáil members are already reputedly throwing blame at the opposition!

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 Post subject: Re: Low turnout in Ireland
PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 12:36 am 
AnIrishMan wrote:
If it makes any of you feel better, I think there is a very very high chance of the No winning. Fianna Fáil members are already reputedly throwing blame at the opposition!
Yes, it does me. Thank you. :lol:


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 Post subject: Re: Low turnout in Ireland
PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 12:38 am 
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Quote:
Fianna Fáil members are already reputedly throwing blame at the opposition!


If true, that proves it. Nothing like politicians to start throwing blame around.


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 Post subject: Re: Low turnout in Ireland
PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 12:38 am 
Lack of exit poll is suspicious.


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 Post subject: Re: Low turnout in Ireland
PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 12:42 am 
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We have a “possible leak” on the exit poll. Its not looking good - 54%-46% in favour of the Yes with a margin of +/-3. I can’t say how reliable it is though!

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 Post subject: Re: Low turnout in Ireland
PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 12:53 am 
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Ouch!

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 Post subject: Re: Low turnout in Ireland
PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 12:59 am 
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Don’t worry too much – the wrong story could be spread to keep rival media off the scent.

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 Post subject: Re: That Irish referendum
PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 2:26 am 
Paddy Power have behaved suspiciously all through, with odds not moving a lot throughout despite polling shifts. Maybe they know the whole thing's going to be rigged anyway, with no exit polls, and ballot boxes 'stored' overnight.


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 Post subject: Re: That Irish referendum
PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 2:55 am 

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Do they have electronic voting in Ireland?


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 Post subject: Re: That Irish referendum
PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 3:35 am 
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Go Irish!

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