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 Post subject: Les grandes lignes
PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2012 12:28 am 
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The Financial Times is now reporting on a scrap between the IMF, the US administration and – once again – Germany. There also seems to be a divergence of opinion between Germany and the Netherlands.

The German government, we are told, is set to resist increasing the size of the €500 billion European Stability Mechanism, the so-called "firewall", held as a back-up fund to shore up ailing economies in the case of a crisis, so preventing the dreaded "contagion".

Elsewhere, we see ZeroHedge reporting on "negative salaries" for some Greeks, making them worse off than "the run-of-the-mill slave". This is, we also learn, on top of another phenomenon - "negative gold".

View full article here

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 Post subject: Re: Les grandes lignes
PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2012 9:03 am 

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Here's a curious thing: I heard from an estate agent in central Hampshire that there's a surge in house prices in the £1m - £1.5m bracket. Wealthy Greeks are arriving bearing wads, and snapping up these properties as fast as they can find them. One local house was on the market for five days.
Funny old world.

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 Post subject: Re: Les grandes lignes
PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2012 9:23 am 
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Charlie wrote:
Here's a curious thing: I heard from an estate agent in central Hampshire that there's a surge in house prices in the £1m - £1.5m bracket. Wealthy Greeks are arriving bearing wads, and snapping up these properties as fast as they can find them. One local house was on the market for five days.
Funny old world.


That's an interesting snippet ... rats abandoning the ship.

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 Post subject: Re: Les grandes lignes
PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2012 9:40 am 

Joined: Wed Dec 08, 2010 4:25 pm
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Talking of bean counters here is a nice quote from Felix Salmon at Reuters,who gives a good account of what is going on from an economic point of view.

Quote:
The cost of this plan is €130 billion right now, and €170 billion over three years, through the end of 2014; it just continues going up from there, with no end in sight. Remember that total Greek GDP, right now, is only about €220 billion and falling.


http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2 ... eece-plan/

The rest of the piece is worth a read,though to be honest it just concurs with most other informed views we have seen.The colleagues are throwing the kitchen sink at stopping Greece going down though.


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 Post subject: Re: Les grandes lignes
PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2012 10:54 am 

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From the link provided above..................

Quote:
Brainard praised "very significant commitments in recent days" made by Greece and its lenders and said that, if met, they will reduce Greek debt loads to levels that officials expect will avert default.

"When you put these things together, they suggest that the path forward for Greece, if it is able to deliver on the commitments, will be a sustainable path," Brainard said. Greece agreed to punishing spending cuts to secure a second bailout, which has led to mass protests but wards off a default that could have come as early as next month.

Brainard cited several signs of progress.

"Europe has made important strides over past days and weeks. New leaders in Italy and Spain are implementing ambitious reforms," she said. "The ECB's actions have helped to ease funding pressures...(and) European banks that were frozen out of the market have been able to borrow again."


Thus spake: Treasury's under secretary for international affairs, Lael Brainard.

Now, she was probably an Ivy league [Harvard Business School probably] first class Major in Economics and/or politics [whatever] and with some sort of higher degree to boot but I really do think that she should get a grip or stop reading the WSJ.
Because, just for spouting those miserable sentences - makes me worry in and puts me in a very vexatious state. That we know, Britain is being run by clueless eejit boys and jejune girlies but if the US Treasury is overrun with a similar claque to their British counterparts - then - we truly are in deep do-do.

PLUS: small wonder then, that Lagarde is able to 'walk all over them'.


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 Post subject: Re: Les grandes lignes
PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2012 11:10 am 
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vincent wrote:
Talking of bean counters here is a nice quote from Felix Salmon at Reuters,who gives a good account of what is going on from an economic point of view.

Quote:
The cost of this plan is €130 billion right now, and €170 billion over three years, through the end of 2014; it just continues going up from there, with no end in sight. Remember that total Greek GDP, right now, is only about €220 billion and falling.


http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2 ... eece-plan/

The rest of the piece is worth a read,though to be honest it just concurs with most other informed views we have seen.The colleagues are throwing the kitchen sink at stopping Greece going down though.


I linked to that report on Tuesday, here ...

http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2012/0 ... ained.html

He was one of the first to offer an analysis ... the rest are following his view, many of them undoubtedly influenced by it.

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 Post subject: Re: Les grandes lignes
PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2012 11:11 am 

Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2010 3:12 pm
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Quote:
Here's a curious thing: I heard from an estate agent in central Hampshire that there's a surge in house prices in the £1m - £1.5m bracket. Wealthy Greeks are arriving bearing wads, and snapping up these properties as fast as they can find them. One local house was on the market for five days.
Funny old world.


That's an interesting snippet ... rats abandoning the ship.


Hants?

Well I suppose the shipping magnates and big wheel politicos all went to London and now the next wave - slightly less wealthy Greeks, though they are stopping in the South - Hants being the next best 'thing'.
I wonder where the Portuguese and Spanish are going to move to - Latin America was always their bolt hole - I suppose and the Irish to the USA, the French left all their former colonies in such a splendid state of repair - the 7th and 8th arrondissements will be off to their Cote D'Ivorie villas sur la plage - no doubt.


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 Post subject: Re: Les grandes lignes
PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2012 11:24 am 

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Ravenscar wrote:
and now the next wave - slightly less wealthy Greeks

I'm not sure it was ever a game just for the elite. There is the Greek diaspora with the koumbaros clan system. Straight forward blue collar/middle class, what would you do/have done already ?


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 Post subject: Re: Les grandes lignes
PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2012 11:28 am 
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ELF wrote:
Ravenscar wrote:
and now the next wave - slightly less wealthy Greeks

I'm not sure it was ever a game just for the elite. There is the Greek diaspora with the koumbaros clan system. Straight forward blue collar/middle class, what would you do/have done already ?


Well, I suppose Greeks is better than Romanians ... and they can fight each other.

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 Post subject: Re: Les grandes lignes
PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2012 11:35 am 

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RAENORTH wrote:
Well, I suppose Greeks is better than Romanians ... and they can fight each other.

The trend I was aware of from Greek contacts was for parking money out of the country. But yes, physical exit is rocketing up the agenda too.


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 Post subject: Re: Les grandes lignes
PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2012 11:43 am 

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Greeks go to Aus. Melbourne mainly.
But I suppose shipping interests in Southampton might make Hants. sensible.

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 Post subject: Re: Les grandes lignes
PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2012 11:44 am 
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Ravenscar wrote:

. . . That we know, Britain is being run by clueless eejit boys and jejune girlies but if the US Treasury is overrun with a similar claque to their British counterparts - then - we truly are in deep do-do


Incredible as it may seem, they are (if anything) worse . . .

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 Post subject: Re: Les grandes lignes
PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2012 12:00 pm 

Joined: Wed Dec 08, 2010 4:25 pm
Posts: 1032
RAENORTH wrote:
vincent wrote:
Talking of bean counters here is a nice quote from Felix Salmon at Reuters,who gives a good account of what is going on from an economic point of view.

Quote:
The cost of this plan is €130 billion right now, and €170 billion over three years, through the end of 2014; it just continues going up from there, with no end in sight. Remember that total Greek GDP, right now, is only about €220 billion and falling.


http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2 ... eece-plan/

The rest of the piece is worth a read,though to be honest it just concurs with most other informed views we have seen.The colleagues are throwing the kitchen sink at stopping Greece going down though.


I linked to that report on Tuesday, here ...

http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2012/0 ... ained.html

He was one of the first to offer an analysis ... the rest are following his view, many of them undoubtedly influenced by it.


Ooops sorry,not paying attention at the back :oops:


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 Post subject: Re: Les grandes lignes
PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2012 12:29 pm 

Joined: Wed Dec 08, 2010 4:25 pm
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Quote:
This is a highly credible scenario. While the focus is on Greece, the real action is on the Spanish and Italian fronts (and, presumably, Portugal). The aim is to stabilise their economies and erect the famous "firewalls" to prevent "contagion". Once the protective measures are in place, the Greek economy will be allowed to crash and burn – but only then. At the moment, it is too early.


Here is a start on that, the Spanish are pushing to have limits on debt targets eased.From the DTs debt crisis page...


Quote:
Prime minister Mariano Rajoy has reportedly asked European officials to raise Spain's debt reduction target to 5pc, claiming that reducing it to 4.4pc will be impossible... Spain's finance minister Luis de Guindos told reporters that his country's request to lift its debt targets would not stand out as unusual because there would be a "general reconsideration of targets across the whole of the EU".


Well that would of kick the fiscal compact into touch, but that was last month's policy, obviously it is February now and time for a new one.


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 Post subject: Re: Les grandes lignes
PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2012 12:33 pm 

Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2010 3:59 pm
Posts: 401
I think it could be highly optimistic, perhaps going on fantasy, to imagine that Spain, Italy AND Portugal will be 'sorted' by late this year.

After all it's not just those countries in a spot of bother. Here in the UK we have the deafening roar of the printing presses tuning out QE money. That's got to stop sometime, then what?


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