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 Post subject: Danger, experts at large
PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2011 12:55 pm 
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Created in 2010 "to provide independent and authoritative analysis of the UK's public finances", the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has supposedly been George Osborne's secret weapon, keeping him in touch with what is happening in the real world.

There is no doubt the man-child needs such a facility, with 21 percent of his less than adoring public marking him down as "out of touch". However, as The Independent helpfully points out, the OBR has problems of its own.

View full article here

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 Post subject: Re: Danger, experts at large
PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2011 1:00 pm 

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To quote J K Galbraith, "The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable."


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 Post subject: Re: Danger, experts at large
PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2011 1:07 pm 
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Brian wrote:
To quote J K Galbraith, "The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable."


He must be soooooo smug, and with such good cause.

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 Post subject: Re: Danger, experts at large
PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2011 1:19 pm 

Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2010 3:33 pm
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Much like forecasting the weather really. The only fact is that the weather may be different than today; or maybe it will not. But hey ho, I am sooooooo glad that they can predict the weather in 20 years times using models!! (As none of the climate scares have proven correct so far, I am assuming the models they are using are of the page 3 type.


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 Post subject: Re: Danger, experts at large
PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2011 1:43 pm 

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If economic forecasting was ever consistently correct, whoever managed it would be as rich as Croesus.

Considering the prize on offer and that no-one has ever achieved it, just shows how hard it is.

PS....whenever I hear some Beeboid sneer about the so called cuts, I cant help thinking how they will react when 30 % public sector salary cuts are announced...because we will never balance the books until cuts of that magnitude are made.


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 Post subject: Re: Danger, experts at large
PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2011 1:56 pm 

Joined: Tue Jan 18, 2011 9:09 pm
Posts: 95
Location: Stroud Gloucestershire UK
These idiots have no excuse at all for their figures. As a private sector worker, since 2008 I have had a wage freeze, increases in train fares and massive increases in fuel and food costs. I have had unexpected educational costs, and all the time my income has remained static or decreased in real terms.

At no point have government cuts helped or hindered my spending power. So they can not be the excuse. As the basics like food and energy go up then they have a dispassionate effect on your spending power, which these idiots should know. In numbers terms I earn more than I ever did. In real terms I feel worse than I did 15 years ago with a hefty mortgage, young family and no money. Something has gone seriously wrong and it is the direct result of government policy, obvious to all but those in the bubble.


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 Post subject: Re: Danger, experts at large
PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2011 1:58 pm 
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RAENORTH wrote:
Excusing its own piss poor performance, the OBR says that higher than expected inflation was the culprit. High prices reduced real incomes and dissuaded people from shopping.
Did no one tell them that increasing VAT to 20% and increasing fuel duty would take money out of the real economy and thus reduce non-state spending power and push us further into depression? Shame.


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 Post subject: Re: Danger, experts at large
PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2011 4:17 pm 

Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2010 6:09 pm
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gregb wrote:
RAENORTH wrote:
Excusing its own piss poor performance, the OBR says that higher than expected inflation was the culprit. High prices reduced real incomes and dissuaded people from shopping.
Did no one tell them that increasing VAT to 20% and increasing fuel duty would take money out of the real economy and thus reduce non-state spending power and push us further into depression? Shame.


Gregb, you are, in my opinion, absolutely correct. VAT should be no more than 10%, regardless of the mess we are in, and petrol should be less than £1 per litre. The fact that Mr Osborne expects us to be grateful that he has delayed yet another hike in the price is risible. The fact that we have let him raise the price to nearly £1.40 per litre is depressing; what do they have to do to us before we take matters into our own hands, reverse their money-grabbing decisions and punish them for what they are.


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 Post subject: Re: Danger, experts at large
PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2011 4:55 pm 

Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2010 11:28 am
Posts: 805
RAENORTH wrote:
Brian wrote:
To quote J K Galbraith, "The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable."


He must be soooooo smug, and with such good cause.


Not really, because, to paraphrase Maynard Keynes, "In the long run, he's dead."


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 Post subject: Re: Danger, experts at large
PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2011 5:19 pm 
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Brian wrote:
RAENORTH wrote:
Brian wrote:
To quote J K Galbraith, "The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable."


He must be soooooo smug, and with such good cause.


Not really, because, to paraphrase Maynard Keynes, "In the long run, he's dead."


Ah, but he will be looking down on us, with a heavenly smugness ...

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 Post subject: Re: Danger, experts at large
PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2011 5:35 pm 

Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2010 11:28 am
Posts: 805
RAENORTH wrote:
Brian wrote:
RAENORTH wrote:
Brian wrote:
To quote J K Galbraith, "The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable."


He must be soooooo smug, and with such good cause.


Not really, because, to paraphrase Maynard Keynes, "In the long run, he's dead."


Ah, but he will be looking down on us, with a heavenly smugness ...


Do economists, especially Keynesians, go to heaven? :lol:

Economics joke: let us assume they do.


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 Post subject: Re: Danger, experts at large
PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2011 6:39 pm 
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Brian wrote:
RAENORTH wrote:
Brian wrote:
RAENORTH wrote:
Brian wrote:
To quote J K Galbraith, "The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable."


He must be soooooo smug, and with such good cause.


Not really, because, to paraphrase Maynard Keynes, "In the long run, he's dead."


Ah, but he will be looking down on us, with a heavenly smugness ...


Do economists, especially Keynesians, go to heaven? :lol:

Economics joke: let us assume they do.


But would that bring them to a conclusion?

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 Post subject: Re: Danger, experts at large
PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2011 7:39 pm 
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Every economic 'plumber' should have one: MONIAC Computer.

"All it needs is some upsidedown lake sediment and it would be perfect for today's economic modellers."
[Phil Jones to Michael Mann (private communication - email deleted)]

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