We are led to beleive that India is an up and coming country, part of the BRIC group and going to overtake China in both population and influence. Are you saying it`s going to slip back ?
Consider a few examples:
1. Media: In late 70s the Indian media dared to expose the Nehru clan and the Emergency it imposed on us. But today, the same media unleashes vicious campaigns against anyone who dares to question the dynasty or its agenda. They encourage divisive elements and crucify patriots publicly.
2. Corruption: Till the 70s, corruption was restricted to big business and politics. Today, we have to bribe cleaners to sweep our streets. The Commonwealth Games scandal is a perfect example of institutionalised corruption.
3. Business: Stock market falls every 3 years when the index crashes from 20,000 points to 800. It is ridiculous. Big business is growing at an alarming rate without creating corresponding wealth for the society. The incredible gap between rich and poor defies logic. All talk about India weathering the global recession is a lie. Prices have gone through the roof. Indians are being fed statistics instead of food. The hyped "global" India is just that - global. It does not exist here. The "software technology giant" is a myth. Have you ever used any software made in India? We are nothing but a sophisticated cyber sweatshop.
4. Politics: From the clean politicians of 1950s we have been reduced to criminals contesting from jail. Cabinets are stuffed with musclemen and sycophants. Honest politicians and government officers are neutralised, demoted, shunted, killed in road accidents or simply shot. The most worthless and corrupt rise to the top.
5. People: Almost every educated Indian spends the first 10 years of his career trying to flee the country. Our top talent lives abroad. They are willing to invest in India, but do not wish to return. The world's richest Indian, Mittal, does not have India on his map, except for a recent feeble attempt.
All these are symptoms of a diseased nation infected by a small group of powerful people. After 1980, they became the unquestioned "democratic" monarchy like the House of Saud in Saudi Arabia, with a death-grip on the country.
And in answer to the specific queries:
1. India is important for world trade mainly because of its consumer market. The vast middle class is being led down a path of endless mortgages, loans, EMIs and basically living beyond their means. Numbers of billionaires and High-Net-Worth individuals have grown, but that is mainly because of the BPO/Software industry which is concentrated in a few cities. Income distribution is selective. The rest of India is exactly where it was 60 years ago.
2. Influence: Indian influence is nothing compared to China which can twist any country's foreign policy.
3. Population: The last census revealed that the rate of growth of Hindus is declining rapidly while the Muslims multiply unchecked because of their separate "Muslim Law" which prohibits population control. Ten years ago, the number of Muslim children of age 6 outnumbered all others. This data was part of the 2001 survey results posted online. It was hastily removed after panic spread amongst Hindus.
My estimate is that India will be turned into an Islamic nation before 2030 by the demographic inversion. That is why events in Europe and US are of critical importance for us. Eventually, the world will once again see allies and enemies defined by their religion, as it was 1,400 years ago. Samuel P. Huntington was right.
In any case, the dots are connecting themselves now, saving us the effort.