I did discuss the Wikileaks memos with a number of people yesterday, as to whether I should do an analysis. But, scanning the diverse reports, one can only conclude that the papers offer something new, in principle, only to those who have not already been paying attention. Thus, the main effect of the "stolen" memos is to give the anti-war media – which accounts for most of the media these days - an opportunity to ramp up the rhetoric which, in the not too distant future, will have us out of there.

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I'm so glad that you have started allowing comments. I'm reading your blog quite regularily. Well I just can tell I have not found
one convincing reason for going to war down there. It had not matter what anyone has said before. We have nothing lost done there and the only losses we have are dead soldiers. That we did not know anything about the situation does not make things better. So anyway I'm still quit happy that this documents have found there way into the public. The seen reactions are not suprising, the papers show how they lie to us, and how they betray us. It's good beeing able to show it to them "black on white"....

Cameron has kicked withdrawal from Afghanistan till 2015, which is into the next parliament. Meanwhile Gen Petraus has indicated that he views Obama's 2014 date of withdrawal, as the start of a 'process', whatever that is.

As with AGW, our involvement in Afghanistan, and by extension, in Islamic countries, is not susceptible to ordinary rational analysis of what constitutes a strategy for victory. The answer lies somewhere else. I cant think of any other reason why the entire West is so committed to 'victory' in an insignificant country which poses no global threat. Afghanistan is a strategic country, but so are others, and does not explain this determination to 'win' in that country regardless.

Remember Afghanistan is two countries: the Tajik, basically non-Pashtun north, which can function as a modern state, and the Pashtun south, which cannot, which can function only under fuedal conditions at best.

The "Afghan" government has recently signed a trade deal with Pakistan so the "north" can sell its wares to India. The bulk of the euroweenie forces are stationed in the North because it is more peaceful.

What we have clearly now is two different trajectories, as I predicted over one year ago when everyone else, including Richard, was still discussing how to win the war.

In the south we have a Pakistan supported "Pashtunistan," an area unable to function as a state, an antagonist to Afghanistan. In the north we have a more developed, urban area supported by India which promotes Afghanistan.

It's only a matter of time before the North/South split becomes official in a North/South Korea, East/West Germany way. Ideally we should not let the south of Afghanistan "slide" into this state, but push it there on our terms.

The problem is the "war" against the south makes NGOs and the Western ruling class vastly more influential in the region than were there no war.

I suspect that this so called leak, actually a torrent,has found it's way into the public domain undetected unlikely.For this amount of

information to evade the security of even a low level office, I find very suspicious, perhaps this is a tactical diversion, there's not a

great deal there that is new or shocking, what other reason would there be to divert the attention of the unbelievers in such a way