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 Post subject: GREEK THREAD
PostPosted: Sat Apr 10, 2010 12:15 am 
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Unwittingly, The Financial Times may have delivered the ultimate epitaph for the foolhardy experiment of allowing Greece into the eurozone.It comes in its latest analytical offering - of which there has been no shortage - when we are told of the latest developments, with the rider: "This was not how things were supposed to work out." That, most certainly would suffice for the gravestone of a nation.The situation on which the FT was commenting was the declaration by somebody or other in the EU telling everybody who would listen that the "colleagues" would come dashing to the rescue if need be.

View full article here[quote][/quote]

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 Post subject: Re: An epitaph for Greece?
PostPosted: Sat Apr 10, 2010 12:23 am 
Please God, may the socialist experiment fail.
I find it hilarious that the european socialists are so stupid.
But genetic defectives have to be forgiven, don't they?, for thinking that just because they say something, it must be true.


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 Post subject: Re: An epitaph for Greece?
PostPosted: Sat Apr 10, 2010 12:35 am 
What do you mean by epitaph for Greece anyway? Complete die off caused by Ukrainian style famine?


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 Post subject: Re: An epitaph for Greece?
PostPosted: Sat Apr 10, 2010 12:49 am 

Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2005 11:11 am
Posts: 6700
Somehow as I read that post I heard Sir Humphrey Appleby patiently explaining to Jim Hacker, excellent.
Watch out for euro notes with a 'Y' after the numbers PDT_Armataz_01_18 .
If the EU are forced to act in all their magnificent incompetence before the GE, will the Establishment be able to keep the implications from the voters? Will the frippery of the charade of democracy drown out the howls of the Greek people?
So, UK implications:
Markets smell blood and push Greece to insolvency. Bailout funded from within eurozone?? Surely not, Germans would howl and Merkel's got regional elections. Bailout funded from IMF? Possible, but since the EU is determined to prove that it is the US but with style, it would be too much loss of face to take that route. That leaves an ECB organized bailout and the UK as a ECB shareholder gets to share in sorting it out, but this mustn't become common knowledge before the election.
This is like a pantomime with the blogosphere in the audience shouting "Look behind you" PDT_Armataz_01_21

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 Post subject: Re: An epitaph for Greece?
PostPosted: Sat Apr 10, 2010 1:33 am 

Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2005 8:47 pm
Posts: 4434
Brilliant post, one of yr best.

It must be time for stern words from Baroness ( Who the hell is she, where the hell is she and who the hell cares ) Ashton, or even better from El Presidente himself, Von ( Shall I read it again, or do I sound like an idiot......somebody...anybody.... help!!!!!! ) Rumpoid.........They'll have the mkts shakeing in their boots.


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 Post subject: Re: An epitaph for Greece?
PostPosted: Sat Apr 10, 2010 1:36 am 
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Yep, Sandy, good description...and 'The Little Red Hen' comes to mind, too.
If the faeces become involved with the ventilator before our Provincial Elections take place there will be a terrible concentration of minds owing to our ECB involvement.
We airily, and sometimes overweeningly, refer to the PIIGs without a thought that our own currency is in a not much better state.
This simple soul hopes that those who are about to die have initiated contingency plans for their coming €xit...and have started printing New Punts, New Escudos etc. with a fixed date in mind & an exchange rate of 1:1
Germans have been the guil-ridden paymasters for long enough & Sie haben die Nase voll.

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 Post subject: Re: An epitaph for Greece?
PostPosted: Sat Apr 10, 2010 2:07 am 
I wonder where the markets will turn their attention next? Reggie Middleton has produced several interesting articles on the inter-linkages between European banks. It seems Ireland has lent a fair bit to Greece, but more to us. So we could see Ireland having to sell assets in Britain, to cover losses in Greece, pushing down commercial real estate values, leading to further bank losses, etc, etc, etc....
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/oveban ... ign-europe

There are so many booby traps that I suppose at this stage of the game we could literally be hit from almost any direction, and it could happen really suddenly. It probably makes more sense reading about what the trigger was after we know, rather that trying to work out what will set the cascade off.


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 Post subject: Re: An epitaph for Greece?
PostPosted: Sat Apr 10, 2010 6:55 am 
Poor Greece... tha sas eípe óti í̱tan árro̱stos!

It would seem that Greece needs more time to pay... Somebody called Barry O'Barma came up with the following solution in one of the Telegraph blogs. Funny but horrifically... not beyond the realms etc.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"The EU Time Allocation Committee, headed by French horologiste-generale Gervaise Bon-Temps (who else?) has allocated Greece an extra hour a day, and extra day a week and an extra week a month.

The new EU formula is based on the British Barnett Formula.

Consequently, Britain, Sweden, Germany and Holland will lose the aggregate amount of time, pro-rated according to their GDP share of the whole EU GDP.

This time will be pooled and allocated to Greece, with surplus time held in STRs (Special Time Rights) by the EU Time Allocation Committee (EU-TAC) as an emergency hedge should other nations (or Greece) need more time.

Consequently, British Tax Freedom Day 2010 is now pushed back to January 3rd, 2011.

France will contribute one minute a week, but because of its Haitian Reconstruction commitments it receives special compensation of one month a year as an annual time credit.

Gordon Brown is urging Britons to accept the belt-tightening. An extra £95 billion is being invested in new watches, clocks and timetables."


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 Post subject: Re: An epitaph for Greece?
PostPosted: Sat Apr 10, 2010 7:35 am 
In fact, Greek debt has been downgraded FROM BBB+ TO BBB-, so it is a little worse than you describe.

What we are seeing is a case of the boy who cried wolf. We have heard umpteen declarations of a a bailout being readied in smoke-filled rooms only for the smoke to clear and the table prove to be empty. The markets are calling their bluff. I cannot see Germany accepting any bail-out; they have an election coming soon and Merkel would be committing suicide to do so.


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 Post subject: Re: An epitaph for Greece?
PostPosted: Sat Apr 10, 2010 8:09 am 
absolutely terrific... the blogosphere is great fun but you're seriously brilliant.. thank you


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 Post subject: Re: An epitaph for Greece?
PostPosted: Sat Apr 10, 2010 9:44 am 
Socialism works great until you run out of other people's money.

And when you do run out, close your eyes and believe that someone will pay, someone will pay. If you believe hard enough, it will happen.


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 Post subject: Re: An epitaph for Greece?
PostPosted: Sat Apr 10, 2010 9:51 am 

Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2007 11:26 am
Posts: 1291
Location: UK
Who can tell what is happening, and what the outcome will be ?

SandyRham wrote:
That leaves an ECB organized bailout .... but this mustn't become common knowledge before the election.

My guesses -

Open Europe listed 10 potential mechanisms for bailing out Greece. Some confusing combination of these mechanisms will be enough to hold off political resistance for the month or 2 needed to get past the UK GE and German regional election.

The markets. Those who are part of the bailout mechanism (typically Goldman Sachs ? ) make money. For those outside the loop, the political aspects make it an unpredictably rigged market, so they stay clear.

Even if there is Greek default, it won't be allowed to break the euro.


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 Post subject: Re: An epitaph for Greece?
PostPosted: Sat Apr 10, 2010 10:40 am 

Joined: Tue Sep 26, 2006 11:32 am
Posts: 824
Location: Tasmania
SandyRham wrote:
Quote:
If the EU are forced to act in all their magnificent incompetence before the GE, will the Establishment be able to keep the implications from the voters?


Who's to say that the voters haven't already noticed Greece's & the other PIIGS' financial problems? I bet most new home-owners & quite a few other mortgage-payers are watching anxiously - on the one hand, concerned about the current unemployment figures & the safety of their jobs, & on the other hand, pleased that interest rates in Britain (if not in Greece!) are likely to remain low. "Margaret Thatcher's" children all over again. Even if the political establishment partly succeeds in keeping Greece & EU matters off the political public agenda, in the background (I suspect) will be a growing, mainly unspoken, worry: "Could Britain go Greece's way too?" All the kind of emotions that are likely to lose Labour votes, while at the same time being unlikely to boost Lib-Dem ones.

Watchet


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 Post subject: Re: An epitaph for Greece?
PostPosted: Sat Apr 10, 2010 10:56 am 
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Posts: 2153
Location: Pembrokeshre
What a year! We see this blog vindicated on AGW and now the Euro. You could almost start a thread "the final Phase".

If they throw money at Greece it will be Portugal next, and if they throw money at Portugal it will be Ireland and then Spain and Italy. If they do nothing the Euro will be crucified by the speculators. There is a further catch because throwing money at a currency (Greek Euros) that cannot devalue will not solve the problems of that currency, merely keep it inside the straightjacket of the snake. To keep the snake of currencies alive they will have to go on throwing money at the weak areas, just like London never escapes helping Wales and Scotland. It is one of the rules of single currency, money has to flow from the hot spots to the cool spots. This was always the sceptics point even when John Major was in government. So I blame john Major and not Gordon for this mess. We will all suffer the consequences of undoing what Major refused to stop 15 years ago.

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 Post subject: An epitaph for Greece?
PostPosted: Sat Apr 10, 2010 1:02 pm 

Joined: Tue Sep 26, 2006 11:32 am
Posts: 824
Location: Tasmania
I wonder if the witch-doctors of the Berlaymont have ever read the King Canute story! This whole situation rather reminds me of him & the relentless incoming tide!

Watchet


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