Seeing the light

[RAENORTH]

Adam Holloway MP is possibly a disappointed man. Having produced an excellent CPS pamphlet on our adventure in Afghanistan, the response of the media has been to "cherry pick" one small section from it, where he discusses the shortage of helicopters. As for the broader themes entertained in his pamphlet, sub-titled "Towards realism in Afghanistan", there has been only one taker, the Press Association. No other media organisation (so far) has bothered to review his work. This is a pity, as it makes a genuine contribution to the debate.

View full article here

[therewaslight]

Late at night but I searched "Pashtun" and like this

Afghanistan and Pakistan: the hidden war

In some ways, the last 30 or more years of conflict can be seen as an Afghan/Pakistan war, with the Russians and now the Americans as bit players. The US and UK now refer to the problem as “Af/Pak” – but have our efforts demonstrated that we understand this point?

The Establishment's ideal would be a Government in Kabul which is well-disposed towards Pakistan. If they can’t have that, then an incompetent Taliban Government might be a least bad option. If this is unattainable they would prefer an ungoverned Afghanistan to one dominated by India.

The ISI believes that NATO forces will leave Afghanistan soon. At that point they feel they must be in a position to take over. Unless the international community can address this issue it is unlikely that Pakistan’s support for the Taliban will cease to make sense for them. The Establishment will continue to support the Taliban no matter what Oxbridge educated politicians in Islamabad promise us, or however much we try to influence them – their central tenet is that Pakistan must have “strategic depth” to protect itself against what it sees as a constant existential threat from India.

Despite the Taliban’s religious fundamentalism and Pashtun cultural origins, the Pakistani intelligence service maintains a substantial stake in the movement. Without support bases in Peshawar and Quetta and more remote areas, the Taliban would look much more like a series of dispersed localised rebellions. There would still be an insurgency, but it would probably be containable and manageable by an Afghan Government with help from us and the Pakistanis. The Indians seem to cope with some 60 long-running and semi-permanent local insurgencies; we can and must reduce the Pashtun uprising to this order. This is huge, but it is more do-able than building Surrey, or even Bangladesh, in places like Helmand. So forget nation building. Try fixing existing ones first.

Only criticism is that it makes the state governments seem like the main players dictating events they understand (tribes being used as pawns on the Great Game chessboard) rather than reacting to them. For example, the insurgencies against the Indian government become an example of success, "India: you're doing it right", rather than hairline cracks that time will only prise wider.

This cannot be surprising as it is written by a politician for policymakers, who wouldn't be where they are if they didn't have a personal conviction that they could change the world and probably wouldn't listen to anyone who suggested otherwise. I mean, they can blow us all up with a single order, can't they?

[AJM]

Off topic but perhaps this is a factor in why so few enemy bodies are found post engagement.

A survey of more than 50 servicemen who have fought in Iraq and Afghanistan concluded that the 5.56mm calibre rounds used by British soldiers 'tailed off' after 300 metres yet half of all Helmand firefights are fought between 300 and 900 metres... A British soldier couldn't attack the Taliban "with any certainty that if he hits the enemy he will kill or incapacitate him... The study claims the ammunition is easily stopped by car doors. It added that Javelin anti-tank missiles, costing £100,000 each, are often fired at lone gunmen. Only one in four British, US and German troops has been issued with guns using 7.62mm ammunition.

The Ministry of Defence told the newspaper the 5.56mm calibre rounds used by United States and other Nato allies are "proven to be both accurate and powerful." Well I'll take their word for it over 'A survey of more than 50 servicemen who have fought in Iraq and Afghanistan'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstop ... liban.html
Seems to me the continuing saga over the SA80 is very similar to DOTR's excellent coverage of the MOD's Helicopter procurement- a strange fixation on unsuitable gear that no other countries armed forces use. A preference for adaptation of unsuitable systems rather than proven, off the shelf solutions.

Following on from an Indian Elephant, (thanks for the reply/ links Raenorth) there has been little other analysis (that I've seen) of Indias strategic intentions in Afghanistan and maybe people, including myself, too easily dismiss Pakistans concerns. I dont think anything else I've read about Pakistan has really addressed issues of legitimate Pakistani concerns. Is it conceivable that India really wants the break up of Pakistan and is actively involved in realising this goal? I suppose no one really knows. Indias RAW is also very under reported, unsurprisingly perhaps; but considering how much we hear about other intelligence agencies. A very murky business, no doubt.

'...This is no time to be accusing the Pakistani intelligence service, as Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton coyly suggested on a visit to Pakistan last week, of concealing the whereabouts of Osama bin Laden. This would be a propitious time, working with Pakistani intelligence, to contact major Afghan tribal chiefs and work out the kind of deals that the former Arab intelligence chief was discussing. They must be made to understand that NATO and U.S. forces are not there to occupy Afghanistan and want to leave as soon as we are reasonably certain that al Qaeda will not be allowed back. What kind of government the Afghans wish to give themselves should be no concern of Mr. Obama and the allies. Tribal loyalties are much stronger than the shaky Afghan nation-state. The U.S. government urgently needs to upgrade its knowledge of the dominant Pashtun tribe. It was one of the keys to the Bush administration's success in 2001. It is still a key, this time for a successful exit for 42 nations that don't belong there. And to make sure al Qaeda does not return'. http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/200 ... onstarter/

[Guest]

Off topic but perhaps this is a factor in why so few enemy bodies are found post engagement.

A survey of more than 50 servicemen who have fought in Iraq and Afghanistan concluded that the 5.56mm calibre rounds used by British soldiers 'tailed off' after 300 metres yet half of all Helmand firefights are fought between 300 and 900 metres... A British soldier couldn't attack the Taliban "with any certainty that if he hits the enemy he will kill or incapacitate him... The study claims the ammunition is easily stopped by car doors. It added that Javelin anti-tank missiles, costing £100,000 each, are often fired at lone gunmen. Only one in four British, US and German troops has been issued with guns using 7.62mm ammunition.

The Ministry of Defence told the newspaper the 5.56mm calibre rounds used by United States and other Nato allies are "proven to be both accurate and powerful." Well I'll take their word for it over 'A survey of more than 50 servicemen who have fought in Iraq and Afghanistan'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstop ... liban.html
Seems to me the continuing saga over the SA80 is very similar to DOTR's excellent coverage of the MOD's Helicopter procurement- a strange fixation on unsuitable gear that no other countries armed forces use. A preference for adaptation of unsuitable systems rather than proven, off the shelf solutions.

Following on from an Indian Elephant, (thanks for the reply/ links Raenorth) there has been little other analysis (that I've seen) of Indias strategic intentions in Afghanistan and maybe people, including myself, too easily dismiss Pakistans concerns. I dont think anything else I've read about Pakistan has really addressed issues of legitimate Pakistani concerns. Is it conceivable that India really wants the break up of Pakistan and is actively involved in realising this goal? I suppose no one really knows. Indias RAW is also very under reported, unsurprisingly perhaps; but considering how much we hear about other intelligence agencies. A very murky business, no doubt.

'...This is no time to be accusing the Pakistani intelligence service, as Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton coyly suggested on a visit to Pakistan last week, of concealing the whereabouts of Osama bin Laden. This would be a propitious time, working with Pakistani intelligence, to contact major Afghan tribal chiefs and work out the kind of deals that the former Arab intelligence chief was discussing. They must be made to understand that NATO and U.S. forces are not there to occupy Afghanistan and want to leave as soon as we are reasonably certain that al Qaeda will not be allowed back. What kind of government the Afghans wish to give themselves should be no concern of Mr. Obama and the allies. Tribal loyalties are much stronger than the shaky Afghan nation-state. The U.S. government urgently needs to upgrade its knowledge of the dominant Pashtun tribe. It was one of the keys to the Bush administration's success in 2001. It is still a key, this time for a successful exit for 42 nations that don't belong there. And to make sure al Qaeda does not return'. http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/200 ... onstarter/

For starters, I have fired 5.56 through a car door, seat, and then out the other side, so yes, it does go through things.
Secondly, if I shoot you with a 5.56 round, you will know about it, and would be out of the fight. Oddly enough, using 5.56 is the NATO standard, and so I'm not quite sure where the quote 'strange fixation on unsuitable gear that no other countries armed forces use' came from. In addition to this, 5.56 allows soldiers to carry more ammunition, vital in the prolonged engagements which often take place in Afghanistan. The firepower held in the average section is not to be laughed on Herrick, particularly with GPMGs held at section level. However, 7.62 link does not last long, and is very heavy to carry on long patrols in hot weather-a major consideration for commanders.

[Puffineater]

Not sure what flavour of 5.56 you used on that car door. If it was a ball round then I bet that it was a bit of door mechanism that got forced into the seat, in my experience a 5.56 can no longer be called a bullet once it passes through a car door. The steel core rounds hang together better after penetrating something like a car, but then in the open, they tend to zip through people without stopping, causing much less damage then they ought to.

Sorry, way off subject, I know.

[RAENORTH]

Not sure what flavour of 5.56 you used on that car door. If it was a ball round then I bet that it was a bit of door mechanism that got forced into the seat, in my experience a 5.56 can no longer be called a bullet once it passes through a car door. The steel core rounds hang together better after penetrating something like a car, but then in the open, they tend to zip through people without stopping, causing much less damage then they ought to.

Sorry, way off subject, I know.

Churchill again ...

The power of the new Lee-Metford rifle with the new Dum-Dum bullet—it is now called, though not officially, the "ek-dum" [Hindustani for "at once."] bullet--is tremendous. The soldiers who have used it have the utmost confidence in their weapon. Up to 500 yards there is no difficulty about judging the range, as it shoots quite straight, or, technically speaking, has a flat trajectory. This is of the greatest value. Of the bullet it may be said, that its stopping power is all that could be desired. The Dum-Dum bullet, though not explosive, is expansive.

The original Lee-Metford bullet was a pellet of lead covered by a nickel case with an opening at the base. In the improved bullet this outer case has been drawn backward, making the hole in the base a little smaller and leaving the lead at the tip exposed. The result is a wonderful and from the technical point of view a beautiful machine. On striking a bone this causes the bullet to "set up" or spread out, and it then tears and splinters everything before it, causing wounds which in the body must be generally mortal and in any limb necessitate amputation.

Continental critics have asked whether such a bullet is not a violation of the Geneva or St. Petersburg Conventions; but no clause of these international agreements forbids expansive bullets, and the only provision on the subject is that shells less than a certain size shall not be employed. I would observe that bullets are primarily intended to kill, and that these bullets do their duty most effectually, without causing any more pain to those struck by them, than the ordinary lead variety.

As the enemy obtained some Lee-Metford rifles and Dum-Dum ammunition during the progress of the fighting, information on this latter point is forthcoming. The sensation is described as similar to that produced by any bullet--a violent numbing blow, followed by a sense of injury and weakness, but little actual pain at the time. Indeed, now-a-days, very few people are so unfortunate as to suffer much pain from wounds, except during the period of recovery. A man is hit. In a quarter of an hour, that is to say, before the shock has passed away and the pain begins, he is usually at the dressing station. Here he is given morphia injections, which reduce all sensations to a uniform dullness. In this state he remains until he is placed under chloroform and operated on.

[ex-Infantryman]

I have watched sheep being shot on the ranges at battle distances and beyond (both accidentally and for a bit of fun) and what was very obvious was the way that 7.62 mm will rip a huge hole through them and knock them over, while 5.56 mm is much more unpredictable. Sometimes the effect is all that is desired, but on other occasions the round would go through the sheep, which would simply turn round and look a bit puzzled. The 5.56 mm round is slightly nose heavy and contains a tiny steel pellet. The hope is that the case will split on hitting bone and spill the pellet while the remaining (jagged) bullet will continue on its way, thus giving two exit holes. This gets round the Hague Convention, since the round will not expand or break if it just goes through flesh. At longer ranges the performance can drop off quite markedly (and I have noticed differences between ammunition batches depending on place of manufacture).

Personally I feel that a better round than 5.56 mm is needed in places where you may be shooting across valleys or large open areas, or up hillsides. I agree that the 7.62 mm x 51 NATO round is heavy, although there have been recent attempts to lighten the case, which takes us to the current US debate on 6.5 mm, 6.8 mm and 7 mm rounds. I think the ideal round is probably on the lines of the .280"/7 mm designed for the ill-fated EM-2 rifle c 1950. This after all was based on extensive World War II combat experience and you probably don't get a better testing ground than that. Of course we could always adopt the Russian 7.62 mm x 39 Kalashnikov round, which tends to be fairly effective at battle ranges. The 5.56 mm round should be better considered as a super-powerful submachine gun round than a proper rifle cartridge. At close ranges it normally does the trick, although multiple impacts are definitely preferable. With 7.62 mm you normally don't have to shoot bodies 'just to make sure', but with 5.56 mm I would always put one into the head for safety.

Of course, since the Taliban have not signed the Hague Convention, and we are not actually in a state of war, there is legally no reason why we should not use expanding or explosive rounds against them and there is a good case for trying to ensure that one hit = one kill through trauma or blood loss. This is exactly what British police forces do. They have no hesitation using expanding rounds against criminals. Sadly I doubt whether this would be acceptable - I have a feeling that our brave politicians care more about not inflicting excessive Afghan casualties than about the safety of our own forces.

NATO has a competition for a new standard assault rifle and I believe the UK will end up with a replacement for the SA-80 round 2020. There are just two questions: the calibre selected and whether the weapon will be from FN or Heckler & Koch. We also need a new personal defence weapon to replace the Browning and SIG automatic pistols. It beggars belief that we are still issuing the 9 mm Parabellum round (1896 design) when its design limitations are so starkly obvious. As usual though, there is no money in the budget.